Sunday, April 20, 2008

The Monty Hall Problem


The Monty Hall Problem, named after the host of the long-running game show "Let’s Make a Deal," is a statistical puzzle that seems counterintuitive.

A recurring deal on the show featured contestants choosing one of three closed doors, with a big prize behind one of them and something else, like a goat, behind each of the others.

If you always switch doors after Monty Hall reveals a goat, then your odds of winning are two-in-three, or 66.7 percent on average. If you keep your original choice, your chances of winning are just one-in-three, or 33 percent on average.

That seems weird, because after Monty reveals a goat, there are two closed doors left, and it might seem as if there should be a 50-50 chance that the car is behind either door.

Play it and see.
Via NYTimes

Pentagon institute calls Iraq war 'a major debacle' with outcome 'in doubt'

The war in Iraq has become "a major debacle" and the outcome "is in doubt" despite improvements in security from the buildup in U.S. forces, according to a highly critical study published Thursday by the Pentagon's premier military educational institute.

The report released by the National Defense University raises fresh doubts about President Bush 's projections of a U.S. victory in Iraq just a week after Bush announced that he was suspending U.S. troop reductions.

Read more Via Yahoo News

NYTIMES Reports Beware what the experts tell you....

Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand

Retired officers have been used to shape terrorism coverage from inside the TV and radio networks.

Hidden behind that appearance of objectivity, though, is: Most of the analysts have ties to military contractors vested in the very war policies they are asked to assess on air.

Full article here You don't need to read much to get the idea.

Sunday, April 13, 2008